01/30/2009 Market Recap: No Title


Although market fell on Friday, but 2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio and 2.8.2 SPX:CPCE failed to confirmed that Wednesday was a top, so bears and bulls still can argue with each other. My view is still as illustrated in chart 0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, most indicators are near a top instead of a bottom. Monday, market could rise at least in the morning.

 

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), main reasons for the possible Monday rise (although Monday traditionally the weakest week day, usually Tuesday is a turnaround day), lots of positive divergence.

SPY15min

1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, 1424 stocks price down volume up which means an oversold tension.

2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio, trend line remains intact, this means that the Wednesday top has not been confirmed yet.

CPCE

 

Some interesting charts:

1.0.2 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Monthly), I guess everybody is talking Jan Barometer, in order to make sure you know that I know this as well, so here comes this chart.

3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield, possible top signal. However I'm not sure now as bond market and stock market seem not closely related recently. (Yes, they're related, just I haven't found any rule to apply them yet.)

3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily), TIP outperforms which means inflation, so my GUESS is that bond will keep dropping while the spring of commodities is coming.

TLTDaily

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