03/03/2009 Market Recap: Still No Panic


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According to the weekend report, today should be counted as day 3, although an intraday reversal did happen as expected, I have no confidence about the possible rebound tomorrow, the reason is so far I haven't seen any panic yet. So if we do get a rebound tomorrow, it's probably nothing but a rebound. Besides this, I have not much to say today, everyone knows that the market is very very oversold, a rally could kick in at any time, just I have no idea when. The bottom line is chart 0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch, if this chart shows no any bottom signals like it does now, any rebound is likely a good sell opportunity.

ReversalWatch

 

0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch, the most important characteristic of a bottom is "panic" when the only word in everybody's mind is "sell sell sell". The indicators reflecting this panic status are Volume spikes, VIX spikes, NYSE New Low spikes. Now let's look at chart 0.0.1, Volume and VIX are not there, aren't they? New Low seems OK, but, look at the past bottom, just two golden bars seem not enough to justify a bottom, right? So, most likely we're not there yet.

BottomWatch

1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, this is the main reason I'm not confident about a bounce tomorrow, only 1054 stocks price down with volume up, comparing with that of Nov 20, 2008, it's not very convincing that today is a capitulation day, isn't it?

RUA

7.0.1 Extreme NYADV and NYMO Readings Watch, my "ultimate oversold" signals, probably the only oversold signal worth of looking at now. When both NYADV and NYMO are oversold, the next day tends to be an up day. The worst case was Oct last year when the market was sold off for another 3 days. The 2nd worst case was before the last Tuesday's rebound when the market, after NYADV and NYMO both went oversold, sold off for another 2 days. Anyway, let's see how many more days the market will remain under oversold this time. Hmm, just found that this chart happens to support my weekend's report - a rebound tomorrow, well, don't count on it, be prepared for the worst then perhaps luckily we may cheer  for the "less worst".

NYADVandNYMO

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