03/18/2009 Market Recap: CPC new low!


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Nothing new today, except repeat: overbought, very overbought, very very overbought. This is a sad aspect of TA (or more precisely my poor TA skills), history does not simply repeat exactly itself. I still see a short-term pullback. And very short-term, there should be a pullback at least tomorrow morning. CPC is still less than 0.8 today, so according to 7.0.4 Extreme CPC Readings Watch, 69% chances tomorrow may close in green, just this time I'm not very sure, will explain later. 7.0.1 Extreme NYADV and NYMO Readings Watch, day 3 NYADV remains overbought, according to the past most extreme case, NYADV could remain overbought again tomorrow.

NYADVandNYMO

 

2.8.1 CBOE Options Total Put/Call Ratio, this is the today's main story, 0.65, new low. According to the red dashed lines, the past two times when CPC was bellow 0.7, weren't very pleasant the next day, so that's why I said, I'm not sure about tomorrow. I don't know if the recent rally is a start of an intermediate-term rally, just with such a low readings of the Normalized CPC, I really have difficulties in understanding how far the market can go up. Today's Fed Announcement, by the way, finally made me understand the reason for the March 9 speculation play in chart 7.3.2 Firework Trading Setup, the big money knew today's announcement and therefore bought lots of CALLs, and this is why the CPC keeps going low. So, if my guess is right, if no pullback or just a small pullback tomorrow, the chances are, that this OE Friday, we may see yet another huge firework, so bears be prepared.

CPC

2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio, just a quick look, another top signal triggered today.

CPCE

1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), ChiOsc is way too high, this is why I think that the market may pullback tomorrow morning.

SPY60min

For other charts, noting particular, just look how overbought they are.

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, NYADV and NYMO are very overbought.

SPYShortTerm

0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, 804 is where Wave reader distinguish between an intermediate-term rally and a correction rally, pay attention there.

SPXMidTerm

Number of SPX stocks closed above MA10,courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com.

SPYBreadth

The following chart is just for fun, courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com. The following four days starting from tomorrow are statistically a little bearish biased.

Seasonality

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