03/24/2009 Market Recap: Consolidation Day


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


A small candle following a big candle, this is a typical consolidation pattern, so today’s market actions say nothing about the future direction.  Short-term overbought signals have been corrected, so I have no idea about tomorrow.  CPC is below 0.8, tomorrow the market has 62.5% of chance to close in green according to 7.0.4 Extreme CPC Readings Watch.  However this chart has given false signals for three times, so I am not sure if it still works.  Over the intermediate term the market is still overbought, therefore a pullback is due in the short-term.  The bottom line is that the normalized CPC is too low on 2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio, so I doubt how far this rally can go.  Today’s “down” is far from getting back the Monday’s “up”, should the market goes further down tomorrow without fully offsetting Monday’s gain, then I guess there’ll be a new high later.

CPCWatch

 

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min).  The pattern can be seen as a kiss back after the breakout.  STO is a little bit oversold but not at an extreme level, therefore the market could bounce back up during the day if it drops further tomorrow.

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3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily), possible Bearish Rising Wedge, plus STO overbought, so the crude oil may pull back.  3.4.2 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO 30 min), the bearish rising wedge can be clearly seen on the 30min chart.  The pullback of crude oil is bearish to the stock market.

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0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals.  Note that the market is overbought over the intermediate term.

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T2122 from Telechart, NYSE 4 week New High/Low ratio, overbought.  This indicator has been quite accurate once it gets overbought.

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Seasonality, courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com. Just for fun. Tomorrow the Nasdaq 100 seems very bullish as statistically it has 70% chances of closing in green. However Friday looks terrible, will it be a black Friday?

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