04/14/2009 Market Recap: No Title


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table. Warning: This is NOT a trading recommendation!
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Up Overbought Beware of $NYA50R which usually means a top
Short-term Up Neutral*  
Report Focused On Buyable dip or the market topped?
Today’s Summary Bears must make a lower low within 2 days to prove themselves.
63% chances the market may close in green tomorrow.
Firework trading setup was triggered today, but I’m not sure if there’ll be any firework this time.

Today the signals are mixed, and the intermediate term gives no clue, over the short term the market might possibly close in green tomorrow.

7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change.  One day does not make a trend, so bears don’t be happy for now.  Cheers after getting a lower low within two days.

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7.0.4 Extreme CPC Readings Watch.  CPC is above 0.7 and below 0.8, 63% chances the market may close in green tomorrow.  Meanwhile 7.3.2 Firework Trading Setup is triggered.  So far, this setup has been played out pretty well but I have no idea if it works this time because the market is overbought in the intermediate term, and it’s hard to imagine the market could still soar up massively.

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0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, 1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals, you can see that the overbought market conditions have not gotten improved.

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1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min).  The pattern looks like a bullish falling wedge, however this does not mean the market would bounce back up immediately.  I guess the market may drop further down to touch the green moving average and then get very oversold in the very short term, afterward the probability of rebounce would be big.

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1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships.  1451 stocks price down volume up which is quite bearish and hints that the down trend may have started, which of course does not mean the market would close in red tomorrow and is not a contradiction to the short-term analysis that the market has 63% of chance to close in green tomorrow.

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Today SPX dropped down more than 1% and VIX declined as well.  According to my statistics in When both SPX and VIX drops the results is quite bullish in a time frame of one week to one month.

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