04/22/2009 Market Recap: A Change Of Character


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table. Warning: This is NOT a trading recommendation!
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Up Overbought According to $NYA50R and $CPCE, the market might be topped.
Short-term Up* Neutral*  
Report Focused On Buyable dip or the market topped?
Today’s Summary Bulls need to break above SPX 875 with great margin tomorrow to prove themselves.
Nasdaq 100 way outperforms the other indices but breadth disagrees.

7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change.  One down day versus two up days (please see comment area for why I count today as an up day), bears won.  Bulls have to break above SPX 875 with great margin tomorrow to prove themselves, however the uptrend would still be considered weakening even they could make it because that would be three days’ effort for recovering one day’s damage.  For people who are not familiar with N vs N rule, please refer to 8.0.3 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change 2008.  A change of character, yes.  But this does not mean the market would plunge right away, one day does not make a trend, so I believe the market will seesaw while bears would win more and more during the next several rounds of N vs N.

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7.0.4 Extreme CPC Readings Watch.  63% of the chance we will see the market close in green tomorrow because CPC is below 0.8 today.

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There are not so many interesting topics today, let’s bash Nasdaq. 😀 AAPL seems very excited during the after-hours trading, but I doubt how high Nasdaq can still go.  Here are the reasons:

1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals, overbought in the intermediate term.

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Take a look at the QQQQ breadth, very obvious negative divergence.

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Let’s see how Semi is doing, which takes a very big share in Nasdaq.  Although Semi way outperforms Nasdaq recently, breadth looks terrible and seems completely contrary with its performance.

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In Rydex mutual fund, the investment on Internet is crazy, and this seems no good according to the historical record.

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