04/28/2009 Market Recap: A Resilient Market


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  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table. Warning: This is NOT a trading recommendation!
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Up Neutral According to $NYA50R and $CPCE, the market might be topped.
Short-term Up Neutral  
Report Focused On Buyable dip or the market topped?
Today’s Summary Bears have spent 2 days in vain to push the market down, so a buyable dip could now be formed.

Tomorrow is the Fed day, the market may roller coaster after 2:15pm, so the final result is unknown.  Overall the market looks very resilient, although not dropped much but almost all the overbought signals have been corrected, therefore bears don’t have much edge now.  Bulls on the other hand may have some edges, not very strong though:

7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change.  Bears have tried hard for the past 2 days but failed to recover all the ground previously bulls made in the same two days period.  Although, bears still have 2 days to push SPX down below 826 to prove themselves, but at the current stage, bulls do look stronger.  So, according to 7.2.1 Buyable Pullback Rule, probably this is a buyable dip.

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NYSE Intraday Cumulative Tick from www.sentimentrader.com, TICK is not oversold yet, but it does not have much room on the down side either.

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1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min).  A possible Symmetrical Triangle is in the forming and therefore there’re 75% chances that the SPY will breakout on the upside.

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1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), 1.1.6 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 15 min), STO oversold plus ChiOsc way too low, at least the market should rebound tomorrow morning.

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3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily), break down! Expect TLT to go further down, which means the money may flow into the stock market.

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7.0.7 SPX and VIX Divergence Watch, both SPX and VIX are down on the same day, according to the patterns marked by blue dashed lines, the market seems more likely to go up in the short term.

SPXvsVIX

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