05/11/2009 Market Recap: Orderly Retreat


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table. Warning: This is NOT a trading recommendation!
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Up Overbought According to $NYA50R, market might be topped.
Short-term Up Neutral  
Report Focused On Buyable dip or the market topped?
Today’s Summary

Orderly retreat, expect more pullback ahead.

7.1.2 NYSE - TICK (30 min), not a single –1,000 TICK readings today, which means no panic, so either today’s pullback is a bear trap or more pullback ahead. The last time the same thing happened was 01/09/2009 Market Recap: Orderly Retreat, in which I was expecting more pullback. I’m not sure if we’re repeating the last time now, but my guess is that it’s unlikely a bear trap, because from the CPCI, the big money continues to hedge risks, while from CPCE, retailers are extremely bullish.

TICK30min

2.8.2 Normalized CPCI:CPCE, should enough show the differences between the big money and the retailers.

CPCIvsCPCE

2.8.0 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio, retailers are extremely bullish.

CPCE

Also, don’t forget, 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), there’re still 6 unfilled gaps, so if it’s a bear trap then tomorrow should open with an up gap, but my question is: will this 7th gap be able to hold?

SPY60min

So the conclusion is probably more pullback ahead.

 

1.0.6 XLY:XLP, this is the 2nd intermediate-term sell signal listed in 0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights. In chart 7.2.3 Intermediate-term Trading Rule, I’ve compared  the results when under a primary down trend, which is better, to follow an intermediate-term buy signal or to follow an intermediate-term sell signal. The conclusion is to follow the sell signal is better.

XLYvsXLP

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