05/13/2009 Market Recap: A Change in Character but More Evidences Needed

Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table. Warning: This is NOT a trading recommendation!
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Up Neutral* According to $NYA50R, market might be topped.
Short-term Down* Neutral  
Report Focused On Buyable dip or the market topped?
Today’s Summary

Possible trend shifting, be restrained from buying dip.

Expect a rebound tomorrow.

A change in character:

1. Today is the first time since March the market has been down 3 days in a row.

2. The short-term model from www.sentimentrader.com I mentioned in yesterday’s report, has failed.


Besides all these, the Complex Head and Shoulders Top illustrated in chart 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min) was confirmed today with the text book target around $87. So from now on be careful of buying dip and if a dip was already bought then be sure no to average down before the dust clears.



Tomorrow, I expect a rebound at least in the morning.

1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), multiple supports plus STO “Double Bottom”, so I believe there’ll be a rebound. But because both bulls and bears all have too many gaps, so I also think any gap open (no matter up or down) will be filled on the same day.


1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), possible Bullish Falling Wedge plus RIS positive divergence, again arguing for a rebound.


1.3.7 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, 1688 stocks price down volume up, this number is too large. As you may recall that we had 2 days orderly retreat without any TICK readings bellow –1,000 while today all of sudden the selling volume increased, this looks to me like a tiny little capitulation, therefore also argues for a rebound.


Intraday Cumulative TICK from www.sentimentrader.com, same like the short-term model mentioned above, the oversold works very well on an uptrend but not so good on a downtrend, so whether we’re going to have a meaningful rebound tomorrow will again prove to us if the trend indeed is changing.



P.S. There’ll be a special post tomorrow morning before market open: Institutional Buying and Selling Trend from www.stocktiming.com, as I believe it’s the time to pay visit to this chart. (I don’t have today’s chart yet, so have to wait until tomorrow) Bellow is the chart for May 12, where the distribution was already at a critical point.


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