06/03/2009 Market Recap: Semi lags

Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


May rebound at least tomorrow morning.

Semi lags which is not a good sign.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Up Neutral* Some buy signals still need further confirmation.
Short-term Up Neutral*  

The pullback today so far looks healthy to me. For SPX, as long as 878 holds, any pullback should be considered as healthy. But since the Monday gap wasn’t filled, this should be a headache for bulls as any gap up from now on would be the 8th unfilled gaps on the SPY chart which should be very difficult to hold.

Very short-term is oversold so expect a rebound at least tomorrow morning.

Intermediate-term still on the BUY but as I see the semiconductor sector’s lagging as a bad sign, so still suggest not to heavily bet on the long side.



Reasons for short-term rebound:

1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), looks like a retest of the Double Bottom neckline, plus the STO is oversold, so SPY could rebound at least tomorrow morning.


Short-term model from www.sentimentrader.com, oversold.



The following charts may need some attentions:

1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), SOX gap down forming an Island Reversal pattern which is not a good sign as it lags behind the COMPQ.


AAPL, up 7 days in a row which is rare, it should pullback soon. Since AAPL weights heavily in QQQQ, so the pullback should not be good for QQQQ.


2.8.0 SPX:CPCE, if CPCE keeps rising tomorrow, we’ll get an intermediate-term top signal which was very accurate in the past. (Well, wrong twice recently, but it actually was my fault as I didn’t draw the trend line correctly.)


  • Dave Narby
  • Cobra
© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.