06/19/2009 Market Recap: Head and Shoulders Bottom or Bear Flag?


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Summary:

Bull or bear, we might know on Monday.

Tech Sector Bullish Percent Index is way overbought.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term Down Neutral  

No conclusion, let’s see how Monday unfolds, suspect tech sector might not very pleasant though. About short-term, the Friday’s After Bell Quick Summary has mentioned 2 things: 1. Statistically, Monday is a little bit “Bear Friendly”; 2. According to N vs N rule, bulls must push SPX above 946 on Monday to prove themselves.

From SPX 30 min chart, both bulls and bears have chances. Breakout on the upside, a Head and Shoulders Bottom is formed, then most likely the June high 956 will be tested; Breakout on the downside, a Bear Flag is confirmed, according to measured move, SPX will have about 53 points drop. Well, up or down? I have no idea. Trading wise, better wait after the breakout before joining bulls or bears.

SPX30min

1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min), could be a Bearish Rising Wedge in the forming. Well, yes, I know, there’s no egative divergence on the chart therefore this so called Bearish Rising Wedge might not that bearish. Just the Tech Sector Bullish Percent Index is at a record high now, so accordingly I think QQQQ has very good chances to pullback soon.

QQQQ30min BPINFO

No much else to say, take a look at 0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights, short-term neutral, intermediate-term all sell signals now.

A few other charts for your references only:

3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min), Bullish Falling Wedge plus positive divergence, US$ could rebound which is not good for the stock market.

UUP30min

5.2.0 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Daily), oversold plus multiple supports, XLE may rebound. 5.2.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE 30 min), lots of positive divergences, also say XLE may rebound too.

XLEDaily XLE30min

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