07/14/2009 Market Recap: VIX again


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Summary:

Still a pullback tomorrow is possible even AH was so bullish.

I don't see new high coming soon.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term Up Neutral  

AH was so bullish after INTC ER, will the stock market skyrocket tomorrow? Well, I remain skeptical simply because the short-term overbought caused by yesterday’s rally wasn’t corrected today.

Short-term model from www.sentimentrader.com, a new high today. Although the overbought on this model doesn’t mean a pullback, but at least one day consolidation is a must.

STEM.MR.NASDAQ

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), a few negative divergences which usually means a pullback is due.

SPY30min

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, VIX ENV 10, a well known sell signal was triggered today. At least it means not much room left on the upside for the SPY.

SPYShortTerm

So, to summarize, short-term upside might be limited and it is still possible we’ll see a pullback and even a red close tomorrow.

Intermediate-term, since VIX almost new low, I still don’t think SPX will have a new high soon, after all, it's just a rebound. The following chart illustrates a similar case in last Aug when SPX and VIX had negative divergence. Comparing with the current SPX and VIX negative divergence, looks familiar?

SPXVIXDivergenceWatch2008 SPXVIXDivergenceWatch

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