07/30/2009 Market Recap: Turning Point?


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Summary:

Could be a down day tomorrow.

Could be a turning point today or very close.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Up Overbought  
Short-term Up Neutral  

Because CPC < 0.7, so in the After Bell Quick Summary, I mentioned that higher chances a down day tomorrow. Just at that time, I wasn’t sure if I got the correct CPC readings. Now thanks for a reader, I’ve confirmed the readings form the official CBOE site at htttp://www.cboe.com/data/mktstatall.aspx. Also, 2.8.0 SPX:CPCE, because CPCE < 0.56, see dashed red lines, this also means a down day tomorrow.

CPCE

1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), After Bell Quick Summary mentioned that SPY now has 8 unfilled gaps. Here is another chart with more restrict gap criteria, 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), even so, it still has too many unfilled gaps. So I believe that today’s gap may likely be filled within a very short time.

COMPQDaily

T2103 Zweig Breadth Thrust from Telechart, overbought plus negative divergence. The overbought signal is quite reliable from this chart.

T2103

0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, too many negative divergences. Especially NYADV and NYUPV, not only a “vacuum” divergence exists between them but also each have negative divergence on its own.

SPXMidTerm

1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals, black bar looks bearish to me.

NDXMidTerm

7.6.0 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily), could be a turning day today. (The chart has drawing problem, so the cycle is actually due today.)

SPXDailyCycle

To summarize, possibly we’re very close to a short-term top or even have already passed the short-term top, therefore I expect a little bit bigger pullback ahead. As for target, well, I’ll discuss after the pullback being confirmed in case the market slaps me on the face AGAIN tomorrow... LOL.

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