08/03/2009 Market Recap: No Title


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Summary:

Simple list of some short-term "bear friendly" signals.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Down   Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate Up Overbought  
Short-term Up Neutral  

Nothing new to say, most agree that big picture is up, just have different view on when short-term will pullback or even if there’s ever going to be any meaningful pullback. Short-term, I have one more reliable overbought signal triggered today, T2112 % of stocks trading 2 std dev above MA40 from Telechart, hitting a new record high. The last time, it was this high a little bigger pullback happened, see blue curve marked by a red cycle. Also now SPY has 9 unfilled gaps, so I still expect a short-term pullback soon. Just as the After Bell Quick Summary mentioned, because CPC < 0.8, so 77% chances a green close tomorrow, this means that the pullback may not happen tomorrow.

T2112

Simply listed below other “Bear Friendly” signals for your references:

1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), 9 unfilled gaps plus lots of negative divergences. The most notable part is that ChiOsc was negative all day which means that volume didn’t confirm today’s rally.

SPY60min

Speaking of volume, take a look at the daily chart, 0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, up 3 days in a row, but volume down 3 days in a row, this is a so called price-volume negative divergence which in the PAST often led to a pullback. Anyway, pay attention to the volume, if we have yet another up day tomorrow.

SPYShortTerm

T2103 Zweig Breadth Thrust from Telechart, overbought.

T2103

T2122 4 Week New High/Low Ratio from Telechart, overbought. Well it still has a little bit up room though.

T2122

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