08/10/2009 Market Recap: My emotional long-term view


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Summary:

More explain about my long-term view.

Expect US$ to pullback.

A new high still is possible.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up    
Intermediate Up Overbought  
Short-term Up Neutral  
My Emotion No idea   Neither believe this bull nor want to be a hero to short against it.

I think there’re lots of misunderstandings about my view for a long-term uptrend so I’d like to clarify it here. The chart below is my EMOTIONAL long-term view, I believe we’re now within the green zone, which means I still consider this rally as a bear market rally. Pay attention to “EMOTIONAL” here, as mentioned in my weekend report, in order to avoid “BIAS”, I simply use a few signals to identify the trend for different time frame. By this way, it keeps me from heavily betting against the trend whenever my emotion conflicts with my trend table. Anyway, from now on, I’ll add a new row called “My Emotion” to the trend table. Hope this could help avoiding any future confusions and perhaps provide some “entertainment”.

1929Bear

3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), as mentioned in the weekend report, the trend of US$ could determine the trend of the stock market, also I mentioned that good chances today that we could see if the Friday’s rally actually meant something. Well, today, at least US$ didn’t pullback hard like before, this is a little encouraging for bears, but a Doji on the daily chart doesn’t tell us much about the further trend, it could be a reversal or a continuation, so still we need to see tomorrow.  3.1.2 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min), on the 30 min chart, however, there’re a few negative divergences, so I tend to believe that US$ will have a pullback tomorrow. The question is how much?

UUPDaily UUP30min

Nothing else new to say.  1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), SPY is till in an up price channel, and 1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min), an Ascending Triangle could be in the forming, so it’s possible that SPY and QQQQ could push up to a new high. I’ve read lots of paid services, all aren’t sure if the market would have a pullback first or a new high first, but all agree that a little bigger pullback is very close. My bottom line: still don’t believe that SPY could have so many unfilled gaps. Well, I know, I’ve been complaining this for a long long time and already lost my credit – I mean I’m just murmuring…

SPY60min QQQQ30min

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