08/11/2009 Market Recap: Down 2 days in a row for the 3rd time

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Critical test tomorrow as for the last 2 times SPX was up big after being down 2 days in a row.

Expect US$ to pullback.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up    
Intermediate Up Neutral*  
Short-term Down* Neutral  
My Emotion No idea   Neither believe this bull nor want to be a hero to short against it.

Common believes are that the long expected pullback has started. The target could be the June high around SPX 950ish.


Is it true? At least to me, bears are facing a critical test tomorrow:  7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change, for the past 2 times when SPX was down 2 days in a row, the 3rd day was up big. So, will the 3rd time be the charm? Well, at least an up day tomorrow is very likely, because down 2 days vs up 1 day, apparently bulls are stronger, so theoretically this is a buyable dip. Besides, as mentioned in the After Bell Quick Summary, statistics support a green close tomorrow. So, looks like the bear’s hope is “not up big” tomorrow then perhaps the 3rd is different and therefore the critical test could be considered as passed.


3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), black bar usually means a reversal, so very likely the US$ will pullback from here which also supports my expectation for the stock market to rebound tomorrow.


  • Jeff Pietsch CFA
  • Goldie
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous
  • Tushar
  • Chris Lovell
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