09/01/2009 Market Recap: Sorry, not the same old pattern!

Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


Market behaved differently this time, so be careful.

3 charts to watch if further evidences are needed to confirm the down trend has started.

Several interesting charts to watch.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up    
Intermediate Down* Neutral Further confirmation needed for the intermediate-term sell signals.
Short-term Down Neutral  
My Emotion Down*   Still think this is a bear market rally.

The recent pattern: “Down 2 days in a row then rebounded to a new high” was broken today, market did behave differently this time, so be careful now.


0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, because sell signals were triggered for both MACD and NYSI therefore I downgraded the intermediate-term to down from up. As there’re lots of negative divergences on the chart so I believe the sell signals are reliable this time.


Well, still need further confirmation? Then pay attention to the follow 3 charts:

2.8.0 SPX:CPCE, my so called “never disappointed me” top calling indicator, the trend line (green thick line) was broken today which could mean a top as long as the trend line could hold tomorrow.


2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), the big price bar looks very bullish for the stock market. Pattern wise, if VIX is down big tomorrow, then be careful, bears, the last time this happened was on Aug 18, after that the market rose 4 days in a row to a new high!


0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, see the 2nd chart above, marked with bigger red characters, if SPX 978 is broken then the down trend is confirmed on the chart pattern level.

By the way, signals could be confirmed again and again. The risk becomes smaller after each successful confirmation but so does the reward, therefore one should take actions at certain risk reward level. The paid services usually provide buy/sell signals at fixed risk reward level, while my main purpose here is to provide info only therefore the only thing I can do is to confirm and confirm. So be careful about these differences.

A few interesting charts for your info only:

1.1.4 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals, right on the support.


7.1.3 Major Accumulation/Distribution Days, today is the first Major Distribution Day, this usually means that there’ll be a 2nd Major Distribution Day ahead.


7.7.9 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships, the dominant price-volume relationships on Monday and Tuesday were both “price down volume up”, this probably means that the sell off is not over yet.


3.0.3 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily), this actually is a question for all of you: Why was TIP down huge today? Deflation coming?


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