Summary:
Firework trading setup was triggered today.
Still possible a short-term top is very close.
| Trend | Momentum | Comments - Sample for using the trend table. | |
| Long-term | Up | ||
| Intermediate | Up | Neutral* | |
| Short-term | Up | Neutral | |
| My Emotion | Wait |
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: NO UPDATE
Intermediate-term, my view is mainly in 1.2.1 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, both BPSPX and NYA200R are way too high so could repeat what happened in the beginning of year 2004 – there will be about 10% correction. No idea when though。
SHORT-TERM: A FIREWORK WAS TRIGGERED
CPC reading was adjusted from 0.82 to 0.75 in AH. This means:
1. 6.1.1 Extreme CPC Readings Watch, 28 out of 35 times a green close tomorrow.
2. 6.1.3 Firework Trading Setup, a firework was triggered.
Chart pattern also supports an up view: 1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min), could be a Triangle pattern in the forming, target $43.07. While 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), could be a Bull Flag in the forming which also means a higher price.
Overall, my short-term view is mainly in 1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals. A black bar formed last Friday means 2 things. A gap down was fulfilled today. Now it’s the “top is close” part. Pay attention to the blue cycles, the last 2 times when black bar happened, QQQQ didn’t go up much thereafter, so if this time it doesn’t go up much either then probably the 2nd prophecy of a black bar would be fulfilled again.
INTERESTING CHARTS:
2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), as mentioned in the After Bell Quick Summary, a black bar formed on VIX daily chart could mean a reversal. Below is the visual back test for a longer period. 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), take a quick look if interested, also closed with a black bar today which means that US$ could fall. When VIX and UUP both go down, the stock market will generally be up.
P.S. BLACK BAR = Open high close lower but the close is till higher than the previous close. This means an intraday reversal happened and therefore the bar has good chances of leading to a reversal on the daily chart.