09/22/2009 Market Recap: QQQQ Black Bar Again


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Summary:

Still possible a short-term top is very close.

US$ could rebound.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up    
Intermediate Up Neutral  
Short-term Up Neutral  
My Emotion Wait    

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: NO UPDATE

1. 1.0.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), SPX is distance away from the resistance area.

2. 1.1.1 Nasdaq Composite (Weekly), hit resistance.

3. 1.2.1 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, BPSPX and NYA200R are way too high. The same happened in year 2004 which had about 10% correction thereafter.

SHORT-TERM: NO IDEA TOMORROW BUT STILL POSSIBLE A TOP IS CLOSE

Tomorrow is the Fed day, day of roller coaster. As mentioned in the After Bell Quick Summary, we had 6 consecutive positive Fed day so far, while CPCE today seemed disagree a bullish day tomorrow. So which one would be? I have no idea.

My view still is 1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, because no big rally today so the prophecy made by the last Friday’s black bar about coming top is still valid. Another black bar was formed today, so again it bears 2 prophecies – gap down open and a coming top. Just this time I’m not sure about the tomorrow’s gap down open, after all it’s a very special day.

QQQQShortTerm

Nothing else to say. 1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min) and 1.3.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM 30 min) have lots of negative divergences, take a quick look if interested.

IWM30min

INTERESTING CHARTS:

6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch, this one is interesting, whenever GLD had a black bar UUP would be up the next day. 3.1.2 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min), this supports the view of a rebound as well, because it shows lots of positive divergences. Bullish US$ is not good for the stock market.

GLDandUUPWatch UUP30min

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