09/23/2009 Market Recap: Bearish reversal but follow-through is needed


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


Summary:

One day doesn't a trend make.

It's possible a short-term top is very close or already passed.

  Trend Momentum Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up    
Intermediate Up Neutral  
Short-term Up Neutral  
My Emotion Wait    

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: TREND STILL IS UP

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, a Bearish Reversal Bar was formed today but most importantly a follow-through is needed. Otherwise it’s just an one day wonder. Theoretically as long as $99.10 holds, intermediate-term still is up.

SPYShortTerm

SHORT-TERM: STILL POSSIBLE A TOP IS CLOSE OR ALREADY PASSED

My major view is: 1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals and 7.3.2 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min). One says a top should be close whenever a black bar is formed and one says the market may already be topped.

Well, is today really a short-term top? Theoretically it’s not confirmed until the green line in chart 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min) is broken. Pay attention to ChiOsc below, way too low, so SPY may rebound at least tomorrow morning. 1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min) should provide more clear view about the possibility of a rebound tomorrow morning. Anyway, the market usually needs a few days to reveal its true direction after the Fed day.

SPY30min SPY15min

INTERESTING CHARTS:

6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch, this chart is bearish as NYMO is negative while SPX is making a new high. For some technical reasons, I cannot back test this kind of setup yet, just a quick glance shows that the setup may not suitable for the bull market. And that’s why I simply put this chart under “Interesting Charts” for your info only.

SPXandNYMOWatch

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