09/30/2009 Market Recap: SPX Swing Trade Model II Sell Signal

Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


CPCE argues for an intermediate-term top again. Need follow-through tomorrow though.

SPX Swing Trade Model II Sell signal.

QQQQ black bar may mean a short-term top is very close.

  TREND MOMENTUM   COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up      
Intermediate Down* Neutral   Sell signal needs further confirm.
Short-term Down* Neutral    
SETUP DATE TRADE STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.
SPX ST Model I 08/21 Buy next open 09/25 Low Win: 48%, Gain/Loss Ratio: 2.3, Ann Return/Trade: 58% yr
SPX ST Model II 09/29 Sell next open 09/29 High Win: 49%, Gain/Loss Ratio: 2.6, Ann Return/Trade: 74% yr


0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, because both MACD and NYSI are on the short side, so I downgraded the intermediate-term to down from up。

2.8.0 SPX:CPCE, trend line broken, so this guy yells for a top again, needs hold the trend line at least tomorrow though.


My SPX Swing Trade Model II issued a sell short signal today. Below is the back test summary since 2002. Well, it’s only a mechanical signal, back test worked good doesn’t guarantee it works in the future.

SPXSTModel2Summary SPXSTModel2


1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, black bar means:

1. Gap down open tomorrow. No guarantee a red close though.

2. Not far from a short-term top. I see people are talking about a Symmetrical Triangle formed on 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min). From the Elliott Wave point of view, this usually means a Wave 4, therefore there could be a Wave 5 to do the final push up. This doesn’t conflict with what the QQQQ black bar says, as it only says “close” to a top. From the QQQQ chart below, we can see that indeed there’re some cases that after a black bar, QQQQ made a new high before pulling back.

QQQQShortTerm SPY30min


1.2.0 INDU Leads Market, INDU lower low before SPX may mean SPX will break below the Sep 25 low soon.


Today’s Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationship is 1525 stocks price down volume up (I think Don Worden reported it wrong in his report today), this is a bearish reading. In the chart below I’ve marked all the recent cases that had similar “1500 stocks price down volume up” relationships.


© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.