Still could be very close to a short-term top.
|TREND||MOMENTUM||COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.|
|SPY SETUP||ENTRY DATE||INSTRUCTION||STOP LOSS||Mechanic trading signals for reference only. Back tested since 2002.|
|ST Model I||Watch Breakout||Stopped out long with gain on 10/01. No position held now.|
|ST Model II||Stopped out short flat on 10/08. No position held now.|
|VIX ENV||10/06 L||*Adjust stop loss||10/09 Low|
|Reversal Bar||10/05 L||*Adjust stop loss||10/08 Low|
|Up 3 days in a row while volume down 3 days in a row||10/12 S||*Short at close||Hold 3 days||61% winning rate since 2002.|
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: NO UPDATE
Nothing new. Still no clue about the intermediate-term direction. The bottom line:
1.2.1 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm, record high overbought breadth plus non-confirmation between INDU and TRAN, so I still believe in that there’ll be at least 10% correction.
SHORT-TERM: MAINTIAN THE CONSOLIDATION THEN PULLBACK FORECAST
Short-term, I still think after consolidation (as we’ve had for the past few days) the market will pullback.
1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), SPY new high not confirmed by QQQQ, this kind of non-confirmation is bearish.
1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, black bar again, so 2 predictions: 1. Gap down open tomorrow. 2. Not far away from a short-term top.
Of course, today is a holiday, so whatever we saw may mean nothing. Let’s see how the market unfolds tomorrow.
I’ve posted a brief introduction about all the mechanical trading signals listed in the trend table, take a look if interested: Introducing Mechanical Trading Model
About the “SPY up 3 days in a row while volume down 3 days in a row” short-term short setup, the details are here: 10/12/2009 After Bell Quick Summary