10/22/2009 Market Recap: Bullish Engulfing


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Summary:

Still possible the market will consolidate then pullback.

Reversal Bar setup will be triggered if we get an up day tomorrow.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Up Neutral No argue NYSI not confirming the up trend.
Short-term Up Neutral    
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
ST Model 10/14 L *Adjust Stop Loss *10/09 Low
Reversal Bar   *Confirmed buy if up day tomorrow.
NYMO Sell 10/21 S 10/21 High

Winning Rate: 59%, Gain/Loss Ratio: 4.9

Very risky trade but occasionally may catch the exact market top.

   

 

         

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: NO UPDATE

SHORT-TERM: STILL POSSIBLE THE MARKET WILL CONSOLIDATE THEN PULLBACK

The bottom line, 1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, I still think the market will consolidate then pullback. In other words, I believe the QQQQ may repeat the Aug case marked by the blue cycle.

QQQQShortTerm

3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), this is the main reason I still believe a pullback: ChiOsc is way too low. The previous 2 times when it was this low, US$ rebounded (See dashed green lines). Besides, 3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Weekly), the huge 2008 consolidation area should provide enough support for UUP.

UUPDaily UUPWeekly

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, Bullish Engulfing, therefore if SPY goes up again tomorrow the Reversal Bar trading setup will be triggered. However since there’s not much profit for ST Model yet, which make the current long position easily go under water again, so personally I won’t follow this setup to add any long. The trend table about this trade will be updated as usual though.

SPYShortTerm

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