10/30/2009 After Bell Quick Summary

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OK, I said yesterday, a V shape bottom is rare. So what the chances are that we get another V shape reversal the next Monday? And even we got that, what the chances are that it’s a bottom (since it’s a sharp V shape again)? Also think about this: The Monday’s reversal, if any, reverses the Friday’s reversal which reversed the Thursday’s reversal. Again what are the chances? You might laugh me at the Monday’s close, but surely I won’t bet against odds, after all, to trade is to win in the long run, so the key is always betting on the higher odds.


The bottom line, I don’t see any meaningful bottom pattern yet so it’s logic to expect that the Oct 2 lows will be tested next week.


Enjoy your weekend! Oh, anyone followed my VIX ENV setup? Hope you read the trend table about the pre-condition which is “Close > Open” and which apparently we didn’t get, so no setup at all, right?

PS. I just got a question asking “Close > Open”. I mean SPY Close > Open not VIX Close > Open.

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