11/05/2009 Market Recap: Not out of the woods yet


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Summary:

Fib 50 retracement, multiple resistances ahead, bulls are not out of the woods yet.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term Up Neutral Doubt  
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
ST Model   Officially in downtrend.
Reversal Bar      
NYMO Sell 10/21 S 11/04 High

*Stopped out with gains on 11/05

VIX ENV        
         

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STILL COULD BE A SELLABLE BOUNCE

The bottom line, short-term is up, not sure about the intermediate-term now. For 3 reasons listed below, bulls are not out of the woods yet:

1. Up on light volume. The chart below highlights bars when SPX was up 4 days in a row while volume was down 4 days in a row. Other dates not displayed on the chart are: 08/02/2004, 01/09/2006, 05/07/2007, 09/14/2007. All dropped the next day. Of course, the cases are too few to count seriously, so treat them as fun stuff.

SPXVolPriceWatch

2. 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), rebounded right to the Fib 50, so still within a normal rebound range. Plus there’re multiple resistances  ahead as well as lots of negative divergences, so it’s hard to say tomorrow.

SPY30min

3. 7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change, it took 4 days to recover the previous 1 day loss therefore by definition it still is a sellable bounce.

NvsN

SHORT-TERM: NO UPDATE

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

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