11/10/2009 Market Recap: One more push up?


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


Summary:

The rebound since 11/02 was not broad based.

SPY up 7 days in a row was mostly a short-term top in the past.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term Up Neutral    
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
ST Model   *Short if Open > Close tomorrow. Officially in downtrend.
Reversal Bar   *Short if Open > Close tomorrow.    
NYMO Sell  

Stopped out with gains on 11/05.

VIX ENV        
         

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: NOT A BROAD BASED RALLY

1.2.3 Value Line Arithmetic Index (Daily), watch the green cycles. The previous 2 rallies were consist of white bars ONLY but this time bar colors are mixed, apparently the rally since 11/02 was weaker. So as mentioned in yesterday’s report, it looks a lot like what happened in July 2007 when NYSI didn’t confirm the market new high, therefore I believe the market is forming a Broadening Top where we’ll see bigger and bigger up and down swings.

VLEDaily 

0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, although according to my experiences, the similarity usually doesn’t work, but still I have to report what I see here: If the SPX repeats the previous blue cycle, then we should see another big push up tomorrow.

SPXMidTerm 

SHORT-TERM: SPY UP 7 DAYS IN A ROW WAS MOSTLY A SHORT-TERM TOP IN THE PAST

SPY had its 7th consecutive winning streak today, see back test results below – sell at next day open, cover at the next next day close. In addition, from the visual back test charts, it seems that SPY up 7 days in a row is more likely a short-term top. Also if tomorrow, SPY opens high then closes lower, two setups listed in the trend table above will be triggered. Both of these 2 setups have above 60% winning rate, plus the statistics about the SPY up 7 days in a row, the odds of winning seem good, therefore I might follow these 2 setups.

Back Test Summary:

7UpDaysSummary 

Trades:

7UpDaysTradeList

Visual Back Test:

7UpDaysVisual17UpDaysVisual2 

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