11/16/2009 Market Recap: Watch the Dollar


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Summary:

UUP H&S Top breakdown today, watch for follow-through tomorrow.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term Up Neutral    
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
ST Model *Long tomorrow.

*Stopped out short position flat.

Reversal Bar  

*Stopped out short position flat.

NYMO Sell  

 

VIX ENV        
Patterns ect.         

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: FOLLOW-THROUGH IS NEEDED TO CONFIRM THE UUP H&S TOP BREAKDOWN 

All I want to say today were already in the After Bell Quick Summary. 3.1.2 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min), the breakdown of the Head and Shoulders Top looks not very convincing, so a follow-through tomorrow is needed.

UUP30min

3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Weekly), from the weekly chart we can see that UUP is on the verge of falling down, except the current support there’s nothing below. The fall of the dollar is good for the stock market in the short-term but bad in the long run because it means everything will be more expensive.

UUPWeekly

Trading wise, a buy signal was triggered by the ST Model today. I’m not confident about this buy signal because 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min) now has 13 gaps and in Oct when it had 3 big unfilled gaps within a very short period of time, the market had a sharp correction thereafter. So it’s up to you to decide if you want to follow the buy signal here. The short position entered on 11/11 should be stopped out this morning because for a huge gap up open like today it’s very rare to be a reversal day.

SPY60min SPYSTModel

Tomorrow is so called a Turnaround Tuesday, plus the Nov 17 is a potential turn date according to Elliott Wave International, so let’s see if indeed the market reverses tomorrow.

 DJIA111609

SHORT-TERM: NO UPDATE

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

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