11/19/2009 Market Recap: Bullish Sentiment


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


Summary:

Sentiment is a little too bullish so don't be too bullish.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term *Down Neutral    
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
ST Model 11/17 L *Adjust Stop Loss *11/19 Low

 

Reversal Bar  

 

NYMO Sell   *Sell short if Open > Close tomorrow

 

VIX ENV        
Patterns ect.         

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT CONSOLIDATION THEN PULLBACK

The pullback today may mean nothing and because tomorrow is Friday and OE so probably we won’t see any follow-through. However from the sentiment survey and the Rydex Fund traders’ actions, the retailers are a little too bullish, so don’t get too bullish here especially if the market rebound huge tomorrow. Overall, I still maintain the call for “consolidation then pullback”.

Investor's Intelligence Sentiment Survey.

II

AAII.

AAII

Rydex Fund traders buying bullish fund to bearish fund ratio.

BullBearSpread

Pay attention to the following charts tomorrow:

1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), the bull’s hope is SOX rises sharply starting from tomorrow otherwise it looks almost a sure thing that a negative divergence exists between COMPQ and SOX. This usually means an important top.

COMPQDaily 

2.8.0 SPX:CPCE, breakout trend line, if held tomorrow, then at least we’re at a short-term top.

CPCEWatch

6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch, another top signal. Besides, NYMO Sell setup will be confirmed if Open > Close tomorrow. This setup has a 65% winning rate and 5.2 gain/loss ratio, so it’s a fairly decent setup.

SPXNYMOWatch

SHORT-TERM: NO UPDATE

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

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