11/30/2009 Market Recap: Cycle Bottom?


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Summary:

The market could be at a cycle bottom so probably more upside ahead.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term Down Neutral    
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
ST Model 11/30 L

*Long intraday.

1.5xATR(10)

Use 2% as the stop loss for SPY.

No confidence in this trade.

Reversal Bar 11/30 L

*Long intraday.

0.9xATR(10)

Use 2% as the stop loss for SPY.

No confidence in this trade.

NYMO Sell 11/24 S Breakeven

 

VIX ENV        
Patterns ect.         

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BUILDING A TOP

Maintain the “building a top” forecast. For details please see 11/27/2009 Market Recap.

2.8.0 SPX:CPCE, trend line broken, the market could be topped as long as the trend line holds tomorrow.  Just this chart didn’t work well for predicting an intermediate-term top recently, OK for short-term top though.

CPCE

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE MORE REBOUND AHEAD

No solid evidences, just bulls have more charts backing them up, so could be more rebound ahead.

Two reversal bars in a row formed on lots of indices’ daily chart, so the chances are good that the market has reached a short-term bottom. 1.3.0 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Daily), the reversal bars are more clear on  this chart, besides the volume looks promising too.

 IWMDaily

0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, today’s low could be seen as a 10 day cycle low, so there’s a good chance that the next 10 trading day could be an up cycle.

SPXMidTerm

1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min), looks like a cycle low too.

SPX60minCycle

INTERESTING CHARTS:

I saw lots of people mentioning this, so thought you might want to know: Full moon was the bottom recently (chart below is from www.astrocycle.net). And 12/2 will be the next full moon. Personally, I think full moon or new moon simply means a potential trend change, so if the market rebounds to 12/2, then probably 12/2 is a top.

 FullMoonBottom MoonPhase

This chart is “bear” friendly, if it repeats what happened in the last 3 weeks: up huge on Monday then pullback the rest of the week. We'll see.

MondayGapUp

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