12/03/2009 Market Recap: Bearish Reversal Day


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


Summary:

Bearish reversal day since March mostly led to a further pullback.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term Up Neutral    
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
ST Model 11/30 L

*Adjust Stop Loss

12/03 Low

 

Reversal Bar 11/30 L

 

Breakeven

 

NYMO Sell *Short tomorrow if Open > Close.

 

VIX ENV        
Patterns ect.         

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BUILDING A TOP

Maintain the “building a top” forecast. For details please see 11/27/2009 Market Recap.

As mentioned in yesterday’s report, the most recent Investor's Intelligence Sentiment Survey shows the 3rd record low number of bearish newsletters. Today, let’s take a look at the sideline money, although not extremely low but at least not like what people have believed: too much money waiting on the sideline or fund managers are worried about their annual performances.

MutualFundCashLevel

SHORT-TERM: VERY CLOSE TO A TOP

Blue cycles below, look at what had happened since the March, whenever SPY opened with an up gap then closed in red? Plus the black bar I mentioned yesterday on chart 1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, so very likely, a little bigger pullback is very close.

SPYReversalDayWatch

About tomorrow, After Bell Quick Summary is bearish, but bulls may have a chance, 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily), the black bar could mean that dollar would pullback. Anyway, whether up or down tomorrow is not important as I think sell bounce should be the name of the game now.

UUPDaily

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

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