12/16/2009 Market Recap: Still not many newsletter bears


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


Summary:

Despite very bullish seasonality, the market may not be able to go up much because there're too few bears.

Expect short-term pullback soon.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term Up Neutral    
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
ST Model 12/10 L

 

Breakeven
Reversal Bar 12/10 L

 

Breakeven

 

NYMO Sell  

 

VIX ENV        
         

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH SEASONALITY BUT MARKET MAY NOT UP HUGE

Nothing new, for details please see 12/14/2009 Market Recap, very bullish seasonality for the following 4 weeks. However, today’s Investor's Intelligence Sentiment Survey still shows too few bears and according to the statistics from www.bespokepremium.com, that usually means not much upside ahead.

IIBearish  IIBearishStatistics

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK SOON

Here and there I’ve mentioned all the reasons for expecting a short-term pullback. Just put all them together here for you conveniences.

1.1.3 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, black bar means gap down open tomorrow (may not close in red though) and not far away from a short-term top.

QQQQShortTerm 

Rydex Bull/Bear RSI Spread which is the differences between Rydex bullish fund inflow and bearish fund inflow. It had a dramatic changes yesterday. Now it looks like a top instead of a bottom. The today’s data is not available until mid night so I don’t know yet. If it has another dramatic change (say, aruges for a bottom) again then I’ll let you know first thing tomorrow morning. For now,let's just believe a top is very close。

RydexBullBearRSISpread 

Longest streaks without -1000 tick?, I posted here in my blog but not in my forum, so have to mention it again. Days with tick –1000 normally should be up huge, but this time the market went nowhere. I think it’s due to a huge limit sell order above. It has no urgency to sell therefore we didn’t see any –1000 tick but certainly the market cannot go up either. This may not be a bearish sign. The key is the reason behind this huge limit sell order: whether it sells for  bonus or for protecting it’s stop loss above, makes huge differences.

TICK60min 

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.