12/17/2009 Market Recap: Still not many AAII bears


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


Summary:

Despite very bullish seasonality, the market may not be able to go up much because there're too few bears.

Could be more pullback ahead.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term *Down Neutral    
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
ST Model 12/10 L

 

*Stopped out of long position flat on 12/17
Reversal Bar 12/10 L

 

*Stopped out of long position flat on 12/17

NYMO Sell  

 

VIX ENV        
         

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH SEASONALITY BUT MARKET MAY NOT UP HUGE

Nothing new, see 12/14/2009 Market Recap and 12/16/2009 Market Recap for more details. Seasonality is very bullish but there’re simply too few bears left, so I suspect how high the market could go. Today’s AAII survey shows again too few bears. It doesn’t mean a top but certainly it agrees that there’s not much upside room left.

AAIIBearish 

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE MORE PULLBACK AHEAD

The QQQQ black bar mentioned in yesterday’s report is confirmed today. Take a look at the chart below, what happened in the past when a black bar was confirmed by a big red bar?

 QQQQBlackBarWatch

INTERESTING CHARTS:

1.4.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily), the rule is simple, whenever there’s a big (I mean really big) red bar, there’d be more pullbacks ahead.

SSECDaily

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