Despite very bullish seasonality, the market may not be able to go up much because there're too few bears.
Could be more pullback ahead.
|TREND||MOMENTUM||EMOTION||COMMENT - Sample for using the trend table.|
|SPY SETUP||ENTRY DATE||INSTRUCTION||STOP LOSS||Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
|ST Model||12/10 L||
|*Stopped out of long position flat on 12/17|
|Reversal Bar||12/10 L||
*Stopped out of long position flat on 12/17
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH SEASONALITY BUT MARKET MAY NOT UP HUGE
Nothing new, see 12/14/2009 Market Recap and 12/16/2009 Market Recap for more details. Seasonality is very bullish but there’re simply too few bears left, so I suspect how high the market could go. Today’s AAII survey shows again too few bears. It doesn’t mean a top but certainly it agrees that there’s not much upside room left.
SHORT-TERM: COULD BE MORE PULLBACK AHEAD
The QQQQ black bar mentioned in yesterday’s report is confirmed today. Take a look at the chart below, what happened in the past when a black bar was confirmed by a big red bar?
1.4.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily), the rule is simple, whenever there’s a big (I mean really big) red bar, there’d be more pullbacks ahead.