12/22/2009 Market Recap: 30% Indicators at Bullish Extremes


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Summary:

Expect a short-term pullback soon.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENTSample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Down Neutral  
Short-term Up Neutral    
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals for reference only.
Back tested since 2002.
ST Model 12/21 L

*Adjust Stop Loss

*breakeven
Reversal Bar 12/21 L

*Adjust Stop Loss

*breakeven

 

NYMO Sell  

 

VIX ENV        
         

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH SEASONALITY BUT MARKET MAY NOT UP HUGE

Nothing new, very bullish seasonality, see12/18/2009 Market Recap, but since the Options Speculation Index is way too bullish so I doubt how high the market could go.

As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, something big is going to happen. Unfortunately I don’t know if it’s bullish or bearish. However, 0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch argues for a top again today and this time it adds one more red cycle. So as usual, the cliche: It’s OK to be bullish but proceed with caution.

PutCallRatioWatch

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE A PULLBACK SOON

No idea about tomorrow. However for all the indicators listed in www.sentimentrader.com, there’re 30% of them at bullish extremes today. The last time I mentioned this was in 12/14/2009 Market Recap, SPY had almost 4 days down swing thereafter. So again, be careful here.

 IndicatorsAtExtreme

INTERESTING CHARTS:

1.4.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily), the Bearish 1-2-3 Formation is confirmed.

SSECDaily

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