12/28/2009 Market Recap: No Negative Divergence Yet


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


Summary:

Don’t see any short-term negative divergence, so short right here maybe a little premature.

  TREND MOMENTUM EMOTION COMMENTSample for using the trend table.
Long-term Up   Disbelieve  
Intermediate Up Neutral  

II Survey: Historical low number of bears.
3.0.0 TNX: Top in a month?

Short-term Up Neutral  

0.0.9 CPC/CPCI: Topped?
1.0.2 SPY: 15 unfilled gaps.
12/23 Recap: too many bearish extremes.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE
Take profit whenever you see appropriate.
ST Model 12/21 L

 

Breakeven
Reversal Bar 12/21 L

 

Breakeven

 

NYMO Sell  

 

VIX ENV        
Other Signals 12/28 S *Short at close. 2xATR(10)

2% stop for SPY, 4% for 2xETF.
*Not a perfect short setup, better wait for the 2nd entry.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BREAKOUT BUT I’M NOT CONVINCED

Nothing new, breakout but I’m not convinced, see 12/24/2009 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE A PULLBACK SOON

As mentioned in the After Bell Quick Summary, a short setup was triggered because of the SPY black bar. Just that reason may not be good enough. Better wait for a negative divergence formed on chart 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min). In another word, to trade against a trend, better take the 2nd entry, in our case is to wait the market pullback then rebound to test the previous high then short the pullback.

SPYShortTerm

  SPY30min

3.4.1 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily), black bar so oil could pullback which is not good for the stock market.

 USODaily

6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch, black bar too, so UUP could be up tomorrow at least gaps up, this also is not good for the stock market.

 GLDUUPWatch

INTERESTING CHARTS: NONE

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