02/02/2010 Market Recap: 2 vs 2 Bulls Won


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode
Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 8 of 8 are NEUTRAL  
BULLISH 0.0.6 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NADNV too high.
BEARISH 2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily): Could be a Bull Flag in the forming.
CONCLUSION
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model 01/27 S   *Stopped out of short position flat.
Reversal Bar    
NYMO Sell 01/21 S   *Stopped out of short position with gain.
VIX MA ENV      
OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ    
IWM    
CHINA Down Double Top or Bearish 1-2-3 Formation?
EMERGING    
CANADA Down Double Top, target $15.77.
FINANCIALS  
REITS  
ENERGY  
OIL    
GOLD  
DOLLAR UP Confirmed Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout.
BOND   Could be a Bull Flag. So yield could rise while bond should fall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL SPX PULLBACK TARGET COULD BE AROUND 1020-1040 AREA

No update, according to chart 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), the most likely initial pullback target could be around 1020-1040 area.

SHORT-TERM: THERE’S A CHANCE THE REBOUND IS NOT MERELY A REBOUND  

I still have no evidence to call a bottom, so has to treat the 2 days rally as an oversold rebound (well, not oversold anymore). However, the good news is 7.1.0 Use n vs n Rule to Identify a Trend Change, for equally down 2 days vs up 2 days, apparently bulls won, so there’s a chance that the rebound is not merely a rebound. The key is that the market must keep rising for several more days because according to the most recent pattern, see chart 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, if indeed SPX was bottomed, there shouldn’t be any VISUALBLE pullback on the daily chart, while instead, it should simply keep rising day after day, let’s see.

NvsNSPXMidTerm

As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, because ChiOsc in chart 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min) is way too high, so expect some weakness at least tomorrow morning. Here’s another reason, NYSE Intraday Cumulative TICK is too high.

CumTICK

The bottom line, very short-term is very overbought now, so it’s reasonable to expect a little bit weakness (at least intraday), as long as it’s not a big pullback then chances are higher and higher each day that we may see a new high.

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), take a look, SPY reached the 2nd target at Fib 38.2% I mentioned in yesterday’s report, the next target would be the Jan 22 gap.

 SPY30min

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in SELL mode, only SHORT candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Today’s screener has only one stock – ODFL, look familiar? Yeah, it was the chosen one last Friday but was not confirmed on Monday, guess it has to die first then someone must say “I love you” to wake it up to be a chosen one? LOL

ODFL 

According to the entry rule, the only stock found yesterday was not confirmed.

HTS

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