02/03/2010 Market Recap: No Straight Up


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode
Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 8 of 8 are NEUTRAL  
BULLISH
BEARISH 2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily): Could be a Bull Flag in the forming. *Black bar, could reverse up.
CONCLUSION
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model     *Short if Close < Open tomorrow.
Reversal Bar   *Short if Close < Open tomorrow.
NYMO Sell      
VIX MA ENV      
OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ    
IWM    
CHINA Down Double Top or Bearish 1-2-3 Formation?
EMERGING    
CANADA Down Double Top, target $15.77.
FINANCIALS   *Could be a Bear Flag in the forming.
REITS  
ENERGY  
OIL   *Black bar, could pullback.
GOLD  
DOLLAR UP Confirmed Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout.
BOND   3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield, *Bull Flag confirmed. So bond could go down.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL SPX PULLBACK TARGET COULD BE AROUND 1020-1040 AREA

No update, according to chart 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), the most likely initial pullback target could be around 1020-1040 area.

SHORT-TERM: SOME NOT SO GOOD SIGNS FOR BULLS  

0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, see green cycles, no, the past bottom pattern – straight up for several days, doesn’t apply. So still there’s no evidences saying that the market was bottomed.

SPXMidTerm 

Also if you paid attention to the chart 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals above, you’d see that SPX is stalled under the purple moving averages. The chart below should be enough to tell you how important this purple moving averages is. Hope in the following days the fighting on the control of this line will give us some clues on whether the market is bottomed or not.

SPXandMA

Although the “Bearish Thursday” was mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, but frankly, I’m not sure, after all, it’s not as consistent as the “Bullish Monday”.  I do have a few not so bull friendly signs though:

QQQQ rose in AH because of CSCO ER, however, be careful of a possible gap fade tomorrow, because the cumulative TICK is way too high. Although the extremely high cumulative TICK readings couldn’t pin exactly the top but it usually was very close. Besides, I don’t think the chances are high for the 2 consecutive extremely high cumulative TICK readings to go wrong at the same time.

CumTICK

2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), looks like a Bull Flag, plus the black bar formed today has very good chances to lead a reversal, so VIX could rise which is not good for the stock market.

VIXDaily

3.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily), black bar too, so oil could retreat, which too is not good for the stock market.

 USODaily

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in SELL mode, only SHORT candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Today’s screener has 2 ETFs. They both have 2x Bearish Fund – FXP and SCO to long instead of shorting directly.

 FXIandUSO

According to the entry rule, the only stock found yesterday was not confirmed.

ODFL

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