02/04/2010 Market Recap: Not Oversold Yet


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode
Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 8 of 9 are NEUTRAL  
BULLISH 0.0.6 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: *NADNV too high.
1.1.1 NYSE Composite Index Breadth Watch: *NYAD oversold.
6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: *Bottom is close?
BEARISH 2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily): *Bull Flag confirmed.
0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals: *Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 103.85.
CONCLUSION
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model *02/04 S *1.9 x ATR(10) *Short intraday. Click BLUE links above for ATR(10) value.
Reversal Bar *02/04 S *0.7 x ATR(10) *Short intraday. Click BLUE links above for ATR(10) value.
NYMO Sell      
VIX MA ENV      
OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ   0.0.5 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals: *Falling Three Methods, bearish continuation 71% time.
IWM    
CHINA Down Double Top or Bearish 1-2-3 Formation?
EMERGING   *Bearish 1-2-3 Formation, target $36.34.
CANADA Double Top, target $15.77.
FINANCIALS   *Bearish 1-2-3 Formation, target $13.40. Watch $13.72, very bearish if breakdown.
REITS   *Measured Move, target $41.54.
ENERGY   *Could be a Double Top in the forming.
OIL   *Black bar, could pullback.
GOLD *Down *Descending Triangle, target $91.08.
DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28.
3.1.1 US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min): *RSI too overbought.
BOND    

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL SPX PULLBACK TARGET COULD BE AROUND 1020-1040 AREA

No update, according to chart 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), the most likely initial pullback target could be around 1020-1040 area.

SHORT-TERM: LOTS OF DAMAGES BUT THE WORST IS THE MARKET IS NOT OVERSOLD YET  

Lots of technical damages were done by today’s sell off:

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, Bearish 1-2-3 Formation, target 103.85.

SPYShortTerm 

0.0.5 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, Falling Three Methods, bearish continuation 71% of the time.

QQQQShortTerm 

There’re lots of other damages, see table above. The worst thing is that 0.0.0 Signal Watch and Daily Highlights shows only 1 oversold signal, so at least technically it doesn’t support a multi-days rebound unless the sell off today was an accident.

SignalSummary 

Of course, bulls have good news too: 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch, when NYDNV:NYUPV > 35, bottom seems not far way. Personally, I’m not sure about this time though as the sell off just started unlike the previous 4 times.

MDDWatch 

About tomorrow, today’s After Bell Quick Summary should have given enough details. Overall, chances are good we may see a rebound tomorrow. Here’s another reason for calling a rebound: 1.1.1 NYSE Composite Index Breadth Watch, NYAD too low, see green dashed lines, the next were all green.

NYA 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in SELL mode, only SHORT candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Today’s screener has 1 stock.

JCP 

According to the entry rule, the 2 ETFs found yesterday were  confirmed.

FXIandUSO

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