02/16/2010 Market Recap: Follow Through Wanted!


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode
Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 5 of 9 are NEUTRAL  
BULLISH 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Bottom is close according CPC MA10.
1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min): *Ascending Triangle confirmed. Target $111.72.
BEARISH 6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape: Could be another leg down to test the low.
1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases): Topped?
02/12 Market Recap: Seasonality is generally bearish next week.
2.4.2 NYSE - Issues Advancing: *Overbought.
CONCLUSION
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model    
Reversal Bar    
NYMO Sell      
VIX MA ENV      
OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ  
IWM   *ChiOsc too high.
CHINA Down Double Top confirmed.
EMERGING Down
CANADA
FINANCIALS Down Could be a confirmed Head and Shoulders Top.
REITS  
MATERIALS  
ENERGY Down
OIL  
GOLD Down
DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28.  Black bar, could pullback.
BOND Down

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: INITIAL PULLBACK TARGET MET BUT COULD BE MORE

No update, see 02/05/2010 Market Recap, Fib 38.2% retracement target was met, but I suspect there’s more. There’s a chance that after the pullback is over, we’ll see a new high followed by a bigger pullback thereafter.

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A VERY SHORT-TERM PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW  

Very short-term is very overbought after the huge rally today. If the correction starting from Jan wasn’t over then we should see a pullback tomorrow. I’ve listed all the not so bull friendly factors below, as you can see, there are quite some so if the market could ignore all those and keep rising tomorrow then things indeed are different now perhaps the past year’s “mad cow” is back. So again whether we see a follow through tomorrow is very important.

The Moon still argues for a top. Let’s give her one more chance.

Moon

As mentioned in 02/12 Market Recap, statistically seasonality is not bull friendly, especially for the next three days.

Seasonality

As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, RSI and ChiOsc in chart 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min) are overbought now and these 2 indicators are quite reliable. And here’s more, the 3 major short-term indicators form SentimenTrader are also very overbought now.

STEMModel CumTICK PriceOscillator 

Lastly let’s take a look at today’s “Selling on Strength”, all are heavy weight big caps and almost every of them has the block sell more than half of its total down tick today. This is just for record only, because I never paid enough attention to this kind of situation, so I really don’t know if it’s normal or not.

SellonStrength 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in SELL mode, only SHORT candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Today’s screener has 7 stock found.

 Scan

According to the entry rule, RSG found on last Friday wasn’t confirmed.

 RSG

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