02/25/2010 Market Recap: Too soon to declare a bullish reversal


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode
Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 8 of 8 are NEUTRAL  
BULLISH
BEARISH 6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape: Could be another leg down to test the low. 
0.0.8 SPX:CPCE: A top was confirmed.
1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): *12 unfilled up gaps.
6.4.7 NYSE Tick Watch (60 min): A little too long without -1,000 readings.
CONCLUSION
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model     *Long if up day tomorrow.
Reversal Bar     *Long if up day tomorrow.
NYMO Sell      
VIX MA ENV    
OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ  
IWM   ChiOsc too high.
CHINA Down Double Top.
EMERGING Down *Hollow red bar, could rebound.
CANADA *Bullish reversal, could rebound.
FINANCIALS Down
REITS  
MATERIALS   *Hollow red bar, could rebound.
ENERGY Down Broadening Top in the forming, the breakout direction is unknown.
OIL   ChiOsc too high. *Hollow red bar, could rebound.
GOLD Down *Bullish reversal, could rebound.
DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom. *Multiple reversal bars, could pullback.
BOND Down *Doji testing up price channel. Could pullback.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

See 02/19/2010 Market Recap, not sure about the market direction, in wait and see mode.

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE ANOTHER REVERSAL DAY TOMORROW

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals, I guess now everybody knows that a hollow red bar means a reversal. Unfortunately however, it’s hard to say the reversal bar today means a top or bottom.

SPYShortTerm

0.0.5 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals, the same, hard to say it’s a top or bottom.

QQQQShortTerm

3.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily), another example, top or bottom?

XLFDaily

So the conclusion is we need see a strong up tomorrow to prove that indeed the market was bottomed. Again unfortunately however, the chances for a strong up day are not very high tomorrow. There reasons:

1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), ChiOsc too high which usually means a 4 hours pullback.

SPY60min

1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min), there’re 2 cycle due tomorrow, so a gap up open tomorrow will look a lot like a cycle top, unless the market gap down sharply again tomorrow morning.

SPY60minCycle

Take a look at statistics here: Recovery Days Revisited which also says tomorrow could open high but may close low. For the completeness of this report, I attached a screenshot below but the credit belongs to www.tradingtheodds.com.

RecoveryDay

The bottom line, as mentioned in the 02/24 Market Recap, according to chart 1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily) and 1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases), there’re several cycle due dates next week, whether they mean a bottom or top may depend on the market’s actions tomorrow and the next Monday. Right now it’s too early to see clearly.

SPXDailyCycle

6.4.7 NYSE Tick Watch (60 min), since someone asked so I posted the chart below. If still there’s no -1,000 readings tomorrow then it’ll be the longest streak without a -1,000  TICK readings on the chart.

TICK 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Since the intermediate-term direction is not clear, so no stock screeners from now on until the dust settles.

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