03/04/2010 Market Recap: Typical Non Farm Payrolls Day Pattern


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode
Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 3 of 8 are NEUTRAL  
BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Could be Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42.
BEARISH 6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape: Could be another leg down to test the low. 
0.0.8 SPX:CPCE: A top was confirmed.
1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 14 unfilled gaps. (max was 15)
1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): *8 unfilled gaps. (max was 9)
2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Too high, topped?
CONCLUSION
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model 02/26 L breakeven
Reversal Bar 02/26 L breakeven
NYMO Sell      
VIX MA ENV    
OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ   Black bar, could pullback.
IWM   ChiOsc too high.
CHINA   *Big red bar usually means more pullback ahead.
EMERGING Down
CANADA *Bearish reversal bar.
FINANCIALS  
REITS  
MATERIALS    
ENERGY Down Broadening Top in the forming, the breakout direction is unknown.
OIL   *Hollow red bar, could pullback.
GOLD Down
DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom. ChiOsc too low.
BOND Down

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: VERY CLOSE TO A TURNING POINT, NOT SURE IT’S A TOP OR BOTTOM THOUGH

See 03/01 Market Recap, there’re several cycles due this week or early next week, among them the 03/08 could be the most important one. The market rises into 03/08 then 03/08 could be a top while the market drops into 03/08 then 03/08 could be a bottom.

SHORT-TERM: A TYPICAL NFP DAY USUALLY REVERSES WHATEVER HAPPENS IN THE MORNING

Nothing to say today. 0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals shows 3 reversal bars in a row, it doesn’t look good. However it also can be seen as a consolidation above the neckline of the Head and Shoulders Bottom after a breakout, which is actually bullish, so very difficult to say now. Personally, I still think that the top signal given by the chart 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume is very reliable therefore should not be ignored.

SPYShortTerm

Tomorrow is Non Farm Payroll day, the general rule is to fade the open gap, most likely the later day will reverse whatever happens in the morning. The charts below are from Bespoke, basically saying the same thing. Also statistically, up big tomorrow then the next week will pullback while down big the next week will rebound, and also if up day again tomorrow then this week is an all up weekday week then the next week will most likely consolidate, the chances of up big is low.

Strongest10ReportDaysWeakest10ReportDays 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Since the intermediate-term direction is not clear, so no stock screeners from now on until the dust settles.

© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.