03/11/2010 Market Recap: The next important date is 03/12


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode
Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 4 of 8 are NEUTRAL  
BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Could be Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42.
BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps. (max was 15)
1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 9)
2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Topped?
2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: NYHGH too high.
03/08 Market Recap: Institutional Distribution is too low.
0.0.1 Market Top/Bottom Watch: NYDNV too low.
0.0.6 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NAADV MA(10) too high.
0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: Topped?
0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: *CPCE MA(10) too low.
CONCLUSION Could short after seeing a daily reversal bar (Open > Close), for aggressive traders only.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model 02/26 L breakeven
Reversal Bar 02/26 L 03/09 low
NYMO Sell      
VIX MA ENV    
OTHER ETFs COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ NAADV MA(10) too high.
IWM ChiOsc too high.
CHINA Big red bar usually means more pullback ahead.
EMERGING
CANADA
FINANCIALS
REITS
MATERIALS
ENERGY Broadening Top in the forming, the breakout direction is unknown.
OIL
GOLD
DOLLAR Head and Shoulders Bottom.
BOND 2 reversal bars in a row, could rebound.

Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented. Make your own decision on which signals are to be used.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: THE NEXT IMPORTANT DATE IS 03/12

See 03/05 Market Recap, originally I thought the market would pullback from 03/09 to 03/16, now it looks like the market may rise to 03/16 because not only is the next Monday the famous Bullish Monday but also according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2010, Monday before March Triple Witching, Dow Up 16 of Last 22. However, bear still has one hope, as there’re multiple Gann Days due tomorrow which could be a potential turning day. Pullback from 03/12 then the pullback could last until 03/16 the next important Gann Day.

GannDays

SHORT-TERM: MORE TOPPING SIGNS

Statistically, the market keeps rising for lots of consecutive days means on a little bit longer than short-term it still will rise. However, see table above, there’re way too many topping signs so I still expect a pullback. To make things worse (well, who cares), we have yet another topping sign today, 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, the CPCE MA(10) below is a little bit too low.

SPXMidTerm

Below are the most recent AAII Survey, too few bears and too fast increasing bulls which is not a good trend. I’ll keep watching on this situation and report to you as soon as I see more extremes.

AAIIBullishAAIIBearish

2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily), open high close in read, a bearish reversal bar was formed today so VIX could pullback which is good for bulls.

VIXDaily 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Since the intermediate-term direction is not clear, so no stock screeners from now on until the dust settles.

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