03/24/2010 Market Recap: NDXA50R Too High


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode
Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL  
ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence.
BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42.
BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps. (max was 16)
1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10)
0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high.
03/17 Market Recap: Dumb money confidence too high.
03/17 Market Recap: Too many bearish extremes among all sentimentrader indicators.
2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: A little too high.
1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): *NDXA50R is way too high.
CONCLUSION Bearish signals are accumulated enough to justify a short sell. for aggressive traders only.
03/19, Bearish Engulfing, could be another short sell chances, good luck bears!
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model 02/26 L 03/11 low
Reversal Bar  
NYMO Sell     *Short if SPY Open > Close tomorrow.
VIX MA ENV    
OTHER ETFs MID TERM SHORT TERM COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ UP ?
IWM UP ?
CHINA DOWN ?
EMERGING ? ?
CANADA UP ? 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): 2 Doji under important resistance. Lots of negative divergence plus BPTSX is overbought which had led to a 2 weeks pullbacks in the past.
FINANCIALS UP UP
REITS UP UP *Consolidates on a small range, more likely to breakout on the upside.
MATERIALS ? ? *Hollow red bar, pullback ahead?
OIL & ENERGY ? ?
GOLD & GDX DOWN DOWN 3.2.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Daily): *Breakdown below both price channel and consolidation range, doesn’t look good.
DOLLAR UP UP Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28.
BOND DOWN DOWN *Could be a Symmetrical Triangle breakdown. Expect more pullbacks ahead.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER TRIPLE WITCHING, DOW DOWN 15 OF LAST 22, ALSO MARCH IS KNOWN AS A TURNING MONTH

See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

CYCLE ANALYSIS: COULD RISE TO AROUND 03/25 BEFORE ANY MEANINGFUL PULLBACK

OK, tomorrow is 03/25 (See 03/22 Market Recap for more details), let’s see if cycle works or not this time. I know cycles didn’t work well recently, but usually they did work so I still consider them as important factors. Just please make sure you understand how to use the table above, as all I provided here are info only, analysis isn’t equal to trading which usually requires trigger and confirmation (I think you should’ve seen the trigger and confirmation in some of my trading setups). I’m not convinced if the market will pullback exactly on 03/25 but consolidate for a few more days before actually pulling back is more likely. As also marked on the chart, the next important date is 04/10 which I’ve been mentioning for several times and will provide more arguments for why that date is important later, for now just remember the next date is 04/10 and according to the cycle theory, the market could pullback from 03/25 to 04/10. Sounds unbelievable right now? Well, I don’t see any solid proof for pulling back to 04/10 either, but we’ll see.

TimeExtension

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: MORE TOP SIGNALS, COULD MEAN MORE CONSOLIDATION BEFORE PULLBACK

As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary, see chart 6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch, needs SPY Open > Close to confirm NYMO Sell setup tomorrow.

NYMODivergenceWatch

1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily), the NDXA50R (Nasdaq % stocks above MA(50)) below is way too high, see dashed vertical lines, NDXA50R too high doesn’t mean an immediate pullback, the market could consolidate for a few more days but certainly I don’t expect the market to up huge from here.

 COMPQDaily

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), could be a Descending Triangle in the forming. However, unlike most believed, Descending Triangle actually is not a reversal pattern, instead it’s more likely a continuation pattern, so now it’s hard to see if the chart is bearish, need see tomorrow.

 SPY15min

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

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