*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: APRIL IS THE BEST MONTH FOR THE DOW
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, April is the best month for the Dow, average 1.9% gain since 1950.
The April seasonality chart from sentimentrader.
CYCLE ANALYSIS: CYCLE TOP AROUND 04/01, COULD PULLBACK TO AROUND 04/12
For 3 reasons below expect cycle top around 04/01, pullback to around 04/12. See 03/31 Market Recap for more details:
- 1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily), 2 cycles due on 03/31 and 04/01, both look like a cycle top.
- 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), BPSPX is way too overbought which could mean a red week the next week.
- As mentioned in 03/26 Market Recap, the next important turning points are around 04/12 to 04/15.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD
Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK SOMETIMES IN THE NEXT WEEK
Since the table above has accumulated enough top signals, I think it’s reasonable to believe that the cycle analysis might work this time that the market could pullback from 04/01 to around 04/12.
There’re a few top signs generated on Thursday:
6.4.6 QQQQ Black Bar Watch, a little guess about the pullback target, well, if indeed.
STOCK SCREENER: For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.
Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.