TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is in BUY mode
Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL  
ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence.
BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246
1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)
: Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $119.42.
*1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min): Ascending Triangle breakout, target $119.96.
BEARISH *1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 17 unfilled gaps. (max was 17)
1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10)
0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high.
*1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): NDXA50R is way too high.
03/25 Market Recap: Smart/dumb confidence spread is too large.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high.
0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCE MA(5) too low.
*04/05 Market Recap: Too much call buying.
CONCLUSION *So far no bearish signals worked but they are simply too many, so I won’t attempt any short until the next NYMO Sell setup is triggered. Still hold the SPY ST Model long position, but no more long will be added either.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model 02/26 L 03/22 low
Reversal Bar  
NYMO Sell 03/25 S 03/25 high *Stopped out of short position with loss.
Non-Stop     Newly added setup, will give signal on this setup the next time it’s triggered.
OTHER ETFs TREND MACD COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. When TREND is up, use MACD buy, when TREND is down, use MACD sell.
QQQQ UP SELL 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high.
IWM UP SELL  
CHINA ? BUY Sorry my mistake, Symmetrical Triangle on 4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly) not breakout yet, so intermediate-term trend still is not clear.
EMERGING UP BUY  
CANADA UP SELL 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): BPTSX is too high.
BOND DOWN SELL
DOLLAR UP SELL Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28.
*Could be a small Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $23.94.
GOLD *? BUY
GDX *? BUY
OIL UP BUY  
ENERGY *UP BUY
FINANCIALS UP BUY
REITS UP SELL
MATERIALS *UP BUY 4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: APRIL IS THE BEST MONTH FOR THE DOW

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, April is the best month for the Dow, average 1.9% gain since 1950. See 04/01 Market Recap for the April Seasonality chart.

CYCLE ANALYSIS: CYCLE TOP AROUND 04/01, COULD PULLBACK TO AROUND 04/12

See 04/01 Market Recap, originally I thought the market could be topped around 04/01 then pullback to around 04/12. I’ll give another day or two for this cycle to work out but looks like it could be wrong AGAIN. There’s another cycle due tomorrow morning, looks like a top, see 1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min) below.

 SPX60minCycle

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: SIMPLY TOO MUCH CALL BUYING

The unique thing today is that the ISEE Equities Only Index closed at 276 (meaning call to put ratio is 2.76) which is the 3rd record high. The chart below shows all the past records when ISEE Equities Only Index closed above 260 (red lines for readings above 270).

 ISEEIndex RecordISEEIndex

The chart below is from sentimentrader, also says the same thing, large traders call buying is almost equal to the year 2000 record high.

 LargeTraderCallBuying

For the current market, I really have nothing to say other than simply piling up top signals in the table above, knowing eventually they’ll work but the question is when? So I think it’s equally dangerous for both long and short now. If you have long with lots of profits then perhaps better to set a trailing stop and let it ride the trend up, if you don’t have long or have too much short, frankly, I don’t know what the best to do now. 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), could be an Ascending Triangle breakout targeting above $119 (see table above, so far all three patterns point to SPX 1200ish).

 SPY30min

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.