04/08/2010 Market Recap: Extremes Went Further Extreme


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are OVERBOUGHT SPY ST Model is in BUY mode
Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL  
ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence.
BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246.
BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 16 unfilled gaps. (max was 17)
1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10)
*0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high.
1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): NDXA50R is way too high.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high.
0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCE MA(5) too low.
04/05 Market Recap: Too much call buying.
8.1.5 Normalized CPCE: Too low.
04/06 Market Recap: Smart/dumb confidence spread is too large.
04/06 Market Recap: Too many bearish extreme signals at sentimentrader.
2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: A little bit too high.
*04/08 Market Recap: Intermediate-term Indicator Score at sentimentrader is too high.
CONCLUSION So far no bearish signals worked but they are simply too many, so I won’t attempt any short until the next NYMO Sell setup is triggered. Still hold the SPY ST Model long position, but no more long will be added.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model 02/26 L 03/26 low
Reversal Bar  
NYMO Sell     *Short if SPY tomorrow’s Open > tomorrow’s Close, for aggressive traders only.
04/08: the setup wasn’t confirmed buy still valid, needs a confirmation tomorrow.
Non-Stop     Newly added setup, will give signal on this setup the next time it’s triggered.
OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ UP   4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high.
IWM UP    
CHINA ?    
EMERGING UP    
CANADA UP   4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): BPTSX is too high.
BOND DOWN   *Black bar, could pullback.
DOLLAR UP   Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28.
GOLD UP  
GDX UP   Breakout of an Ascending Triangle, target $54.2.
OIL UP *good buy? *Hollow red bar, could rebound.
ENERGY UP  
FINANCIALS UP  
REITS UP *Breakout then pullback and held the breakout point, looks good.
MATERIALS UP   4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: APRIL IS THE BEST MONTH FOR THE DOW

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, April is the best month for the Dow, average 1.9% gain since 1950. See 04/01 Market Recap for the April Seasonality chart.

CYCLE ANALYSIS: CYCLE TOP COULD BE AROUND 04/11 TO 04/15

As mentioned in today’s After Bell Quick Summary there’s a good chance that the SPX could close in green tomorrow (the chance for a new high is higher than eventually close in green). However, because there’re simply too many bearish extremes, so I don’t expect it to up much, so this could mean that the market consolidates into the next week. The next week, we have 04/11 to 04/15 as very important time windows so there’re chances that the cycle top could be in the next week. Yes, I’ve been changing the cycle top from around 03/09 to 04/12, this is the sad nature of the cycle analysis – the date due could be a turning point, if not, then the next cycle due date could be the turning point. Now looks to me the next possible turning point is around 04/11 to 04/15. Well, we’ll see.

04/11, 04/14, 04/15 all are repeated multiple times in the Gann Day table below.

 GannDay

04/12 is 50% of the 2002 low to 2007 high 5 year cycle, so it could be an very important time resistance.

 SPXTimeExtension

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: BEARISH EXTREMES WENT FURTHER EXTREME

Nothing new, in 04/06 Market Recap, I mentioned 2 comprehensive indicators from the sentimentrader, Smart Money/Dumb Money Confidence and Indicators at Extremes, they went further extreme today. Also another comprehensive indicator, Intermediate-term Indicator Score is very extreme now, which combines all the sentimentrader intermediate-term indicators together.

SmartDumbMoneyConfidenceIndicatorsAtExtremesIntermediateTermScore

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

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