04/26/2010 Market Recap: NYHGH New High Again


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart)
Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY    
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 5 are OVERBOUGHT Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode
Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode
ATTENTION

0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence.
1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps
: 16 unfilled up gaps. (max was 18)
0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Could be an Ascending Broadening Wedge in the forming.

BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246.
*0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: NYHGH new high could mean SPX new high ahead.
BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE and CPC MA(10) too low.
4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high.
4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high.
CONCLUSION
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING VEHICLE:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
ST Model 02/26L 04/19 low *Stopped out of long position with gains.
Reversal Bar  
NYMO Sell    
Non-Stop    
OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ UP  

4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX overbought and too high above MA(200).
0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals: Ascending Triangle breakout, target $51.48.
ChiOsc a little too high.

IWM UP  

ChiOsc a little too high.
4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly): Too high above MA(200).

CHINA ?  
EMERGING UP    
CANADA UP  
BOND DOWN   0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Breakout of a Bull Flag, so yield could up while bond will be down.
DOLLAR UP
GOLD UP  
GDX UP  
OIL UP
ENERGY UP   4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Breakout!
FINANCIALS UP  

ChiOsc a little too high.
4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly)
: Too high above MA(200).

REITS UP
MATERIALS UP    

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MOSTLY THE MONTH’S LAST TRADING WEEK WAS RED SINCE AUG 2009

See 04/23 Market Recap for more details.

CYCLE ANALYSIS: THE NEXT IMPORTANT DATE IS 05/06

The next potential turn date is 05/06 (+-) which could either be a top or a bottom depending on how the market marches to that date. See 04/16 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

Although so far the earnings season appears OK (I was expecting sell on news), but still maintain the forecast for a roller coaster intermediate-term ahead. Two major reasons:

6.1.0 Extreme CPCE Readings Watch, see blue dashed lines, extremely low CPCE means a choppy ahead.

1

T2111 from Telechart, percent of stocks 2 std dev above MA(200) is a little bit too high. See the blue curve representing SPX, it becomes very choppy whenever T2111 is too high (above the blue horizontal line).

2

From the weekly T2111 below we can see that the current T2111 reading is at very extreme level which in the past also means a choppy market ahead.

 3

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A NEW HIGH AHEAD BUT MAY SEE SOME SHORT-TERM WEAKNESS FIRST

As mentioned in the 04/23 Market Recap, whenever NYHGH (NYSE New 52 Week Highs) is extremely high, a red day is more like the next day. However the market could only be topped when a negative divergence is formed on the NYHGH first, so accordingly the NYHGH new high means SPX will have a new high ahead. Today we saw a new high and got a red day therefore conforming the pattern. As of tomorrow, we might see a similar pattern (a red day and a SPX new high tomorrow or some day later) because the NYHGH reached a new high again today.

4

6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch, by definition today is a bearish reversal day although the gap up in the morning was a little too small. Anyway, the chart also argues for a short-term weakness, expect either pullback or consolidation ahead.

5

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