Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:
*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: MOSTLY THE MONTH’S LAST TRADING WEEK WAS RED SINCE AUG 2009
See 04/23 Market Recap for more details.
CYCLE ANALYSIS: THE NEXT IMPORTANT DATE IS 05/06
The next potential turn date is 05/06 (+-) which could either be a top or a bottom depending on how the market marches to that date. See 04/16 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD
Although so far the earnings season appears OK (I was expecting sell on news), but still maintain the forecast for a roller coaster intermediate-term ahead. Two major reasons:
6.1.0 Extreme CPCE Readings Watch, see blue dashed lines, extremely low CPCE means a choppy ahead.
T2111 from Telechart, percent of stocks 2 std dev above MA(200) is a little bit too high. See the blue curve representing SPX, it becomes very choppy whenever T2111 is too high (above the blue horizontal line).
SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A NEW HIGH AHEAD BUT MAY SEE SOME SHORT-TERM WEAKNESS FIRST
As mentioned in the 04/23 Market Recap, whenever NYHGH (NYSE New 52 Week Highs) is extremely high, a red day is more like the next day. However the market could only be topped when a negative divergence is formed on the NYHGH first, so accordingly the NYHGH new high means SPX will have a new high ahead. Today we saw a new high and got a red day therefore conforming the pattern. As of tomorrow, we might see a similar pattern (a red day and a SPX new high tomorrow or some day later) because the NYHGH reached a new high again today.
6.4.3a SPY Bearish Reversal Day Watch, by definition today is a bearish reversal day although the gap up in the morning was a little too small. Anyway, the chart also argues for a short-term weakness, expect either pullback or consolidation ahead.