*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
SEASONALITY: MOSTLY THE MONTH’S LAST TRADING WEEK WAS RED SINCE AUG 2009
See 04/23 Market Recap for more details.
CYCLE ANALYSIS: THE NEXT IMPORTANT DATE IS 05/06
The next potential turn date is 05/06 (+-) which could either be a top or a bottom depending on how the market marches to that date. See 04/16 Market Recap for more details.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD
See 04/26 Market Recap for more details.
SHORT-TERM: A FEW LONG SETUP NEED CONFIRMATION TOMORROW
From SPY daily chart, today is a typical consolidation day therefore the direction is unknown, need see tomorrow (see 8.0.1 Small Body Bar Trading Rule for why). However as discussed in 04/27 Market Recap, if the market repeats the past Major Distribution Day pattern, then the small green day today probably means that the market was bottomed.
Of course, calling a market bottom for now is merely a speculation. For trading, we better have a good setup. And today we’re lucky to have one: 6.2.0a VIX Trading Signals (ENV), VIX dropped back into MA ENV(10, 20) triggering a potential long setup.
If wait until you’re sure that SPY tomorrow Open < tomorrow Close before entering a long position, the winning rate is 81%.
If buy at tomorrow’s open without waiting for a confirmation then the winning rate is 59%.