08/24/2010 Market Recap: Test 07/01 Low?


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL  
Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term Model is SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is down but I hold no short position overnight.
GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
8/26, 9/10 08/24 / 08/23 8/23 Next pivot date: 08/23 – 08/26
BULLISH
BEARISH *0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: the 3rd Hindenburg Omen triggered.
*
T2105 too high.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 08/16 S N/A For general direction guide only.
ST Model 08/23 S *Breakeven *Adjust stop loss.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICS ARE BEARISH

See 08/20 Market Recap for more details.

Remember the T2105 back test I mentioned in 08/20 Market Recap? Since T2105 keeps making new high since then, so I tightened the test conditions: Sell short at close when MACD(10, 200, 1) > 0.60 (so called normalizing), cover when MACD(10, 200, 1) < 0.60 since year 2000. The test results below should be clear enough, so I won’t bother to blah blah here again.

T2105BackTestSummary

The chart below is the visual back test of the above test results. For you to “feel” it like feel the force around you sort of feel.

T2105VisualBackTest

SHORT-TERM: THE 07/01 LOW MAY BE TESTED

The bottom line:

  1. Since both Head and Shoulders Top and Rising Wedge text book target point to the same 07/01 low, so the 07/01 low may be tested.
  2. The next important pivot date is around 08/26(+-).
  3. Since the selling this time is weaker than the previous 3 times since 04/26, so the bullish call is a potential Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming. Personally, however, I won’t put my bet on this though.

1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min), this chart explains why the 07/01 low may be tested.

SPY60min 

The chart below should also clearly explain why 08/26 is an important date. Especially, if you’ve noticed that the 2 of the most important dates so far this year were 04/26 high and 05/25 low, both happened around date 26. In addition I also have a 3rd party document (cannot be disclosed yet) claiming that 08/26 is very important. As for whether 08/26 is low or high, is hard to say. Just if the market pullbacks to 08/26 and at the same time reaching the 07/01 low at SPX 1010 or SPX 1040 (for possible Head and Shoulders Bottom as shown on the chart below), then chances are good that 08/26 could be an important low.

TimeAnalysis 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

TREND DTMFS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ *DOWN SELL
IWM *DOWN SELL
CHINA UP Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING UP SELL 4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN DOWN SELL
CANADA UP SELL
BOND UP 4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Too far away from MA(200).
EURO DOWN SELL
GOLD UP
GDX UP 4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL DOWN SELL
ENERGY DOWN SELL
FINANCIALS DOWN SELL 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS *DOWN SELL 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS *DOWN SELL

*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

© 2013 Cobra's Market View — All Rights Reserved.