Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:
SHORT-TERM: DIRECTION NOT CLEAR, COULD BE A BEAR FLAG IN THE FORMING THOUGH
The drop today may mean nothing as the price is still within the consolidation area I’ve been blah blah those days, so the short-term direction still is not clear. I won’t be surprised if the market is up huge tomorrow because during a trend transition period a reversal of reversal of reversal (add another hundred of reversal of reversal here if you like) is very common. So before the market could keep going on one direction at least for a few days, all I can say are that market is in a topping process and right now bear is attacking because a Bear Flag could be in the forming which means the price more likely will continue on the downside.
I bet most of you haven’t noticed that QQQQ has been down 6 days in a row now. This definitely is not a good sign as in a strong uptrend you don’t even see QQQQ down more than one day. The chart below (highlighted in red) should illustrate what I mean – down 6 days in a row usually happened in the middle of an intermediate-term down slope.
QQQQ down 6 days in a row, buy at today’s close, sell 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 10 days later since 1990, from the back test summary below, you can see that down 6 days in a row didn’t guarantee an up day tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, neither did it guarantee a bright future in 2 or 4 weeks and the drawdown during the 4 weeks period could go as high as 13%.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SEEMS 11%+ RISE GUARANTEED BEFORE YEAR END, I’M SKEPTICAL HOWEVER
See 10/01 Market Recap for details.
SEASONALITY: OCTOBER IS BULLISH
See 10/01 Market Recap for October Seasonality chart.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|QQQQ||*DOWN||4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.|
|EMERGING||UP||4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.|
|GDX||*DOWN||4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.|
|OIL||UP||*Bearish reversal bar, pullback?|
|FINANCIALS||*LA||4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?|
|REITS||UP||4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.|
- Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
- Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
- * = New update.
- Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
- LA = Lateral Trend.