10/06/2010 Market Recap: Mini SPX Target 1173?


Cobra's Market View Private Messaging System shows:


  TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT
Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY  
Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term Model is BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is up and I hold partial long position overnight.
GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION
10/10-10/11 10/07 : 10/08 10/11 Next pivot date: 10/05 – 10/11
BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242.
09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end.
10/05 Market Recap: 16 more trading days upswing?
BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 19 unfilled gaps, the max is 19.
09/23 Market Recap: SPX  down 3 days means 79% chances to close below 09/23 close in 10 days.  Failed!
09/27 Market Recap: AAPL is now too stretched.
10/01 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish.
10/01 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report.
SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE.
TRADING PLATFORM:
SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU
Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24.
ST Model 09/24 L Breakeven

SHORT-TERM: SPX MINI PRICE TARGET 1173, PIVOT DATE AROUND 10/11

As mentioned in yesterday’s report, as long as the market didn’t drop huge today, I’d consider the breakout yesterday as valid. So today’s market action should confirm a bullish short-term, which according to yesterday’s report, if repeats what happened in April this year, then probably there’re 16 trading days upswing (doesn’t mean up 16 days in a row) ahead. Tomorrow should be another chance to confirm the validity of the breakout, as it must be an up day, otherwise according to the chart below, 2 consecutive red days after a Major Accumulation Day was a bad sign.

MADWatch 

I don’t see anything worth blah blah today, so in order to always have something to draw you guys to my blog, I’d like to make a speculation about the next price and time target below, for fun only of course. Personally, I never trade purely based on the price and time speculation.

SPX mini price target should be above 1173.

I discussed “INDU Leads Market” long time ago HERE which according to my most recent observation should still work now. See chart below, INDU has already broken above its 05/13 high so if it still leads then this should imply that SPX will eventually breakout above its 05/13 high at 1173.

INDULeadsMarket 

The next pivot date ranges from 10/05 to 10/11. 

The chart below illustrates various reasons why the next pivot date could range from 10/05 to 10/11. I’m not sure if among those pivot dates, there exists the top or a top or nothing at all. I just feel that they’re very important information that I should let you aware. By the way, a reader asked why I should bother to analysis pivot date. Well, a pivot date is similar to a resistance, that it can be seen as a resistance in terms of time, so like a resistance, it might or might not work but never have I heard that anybody saying because resistance sometimes doesn’t work so it’s useless to analysis resistance, well, so does the pivot date or more precisely the time resistance analysis.

  1. Multiple Gann Day confluence on 10/05, 10/06, 10/10 and 10/11.
  2. Statistically, trend is more likely to change on day 6 and 11 of each month since 2000.
  3. The next 39 trading day (or 56 calendar day) cycle is due on 10/11.
  4. A = C in terms of trading days was due on 10/05.
  5. New Moon is on 10/07.
  6. Solar Term date is on 10/08.
  7. SPX hit all time high on 10/11/2007.

PriceAndTimeAnalysis 

Besides all the reasons mentioned above, the last but not the least reason is that Non Farm Payroll is on 10/08. The chart below clearly shows the market is more likely to turn around Non Farm Payroll day especially if the day was a red day.

NFPWatch 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SEEMS 11%+ RISE GUARANTEED BEFORE YEAR END, I’M SKEPTICAL HOWEVER

See 10/01 Market Recap for details.

SEASONALITY: OCTOBER IS BULLISH

See 10/01 Market Recap for October Seasonality chart.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

TREND COMMENT
QQQQ *LA 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.
IWM UP
CHINA  
EMERGING UP 4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
CANADA UP TOADV MA(10) too high and has negative divergence.
BOND *UP
EURO UP
GOLD UP
GDX UP 4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL UP
ENERGY UP
FINANCIALS UP 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS UP 4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.
MATERIALS UP

  1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
  2. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no specific buy/sell signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
  3. * = New update.
  4. Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
  5. LA = Lateral Trend.

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