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SHORT-TERM: SPX MINI PRICE TARGET 1173, PIVOT DATE AROUND 10/11
As mentioned in yesterday’s report, as long as the market didn’t drop huge today, I’d consider the breakout yesterday as valid. So today’s market action should confirm a bullish short-term, which according to yesterday’s report, if repeats what happened in April this year, then probably there’re 16 trading days upswing (doesn’t mean up 16 days in a row) ahead. Tomorrow should be another chance to confirm the validity of the breakout, as it must be an up day, otherwise according to the chart below, 2 consecutive red days after a Major Accumulation Day was a bad sign.
I don’t see anything worth blah blah today, so in order to always have something to draw you guys to my blog, I’d like to make a speculation about the next price and time target below, for fun only of course. Personally, I never trade purely based on the price and time speculation.
SPX mini price target should be above 1173.
I discussed “INDU Leads Market” long time ago HERE which according to my most recent observation should still work now. See chart below, INDU has already broken above its 05/13 high so if it still leads then this should imply that SPX will eventually breakout above its 05/13 high at 1173.
The next pivot date ranges from 10/05 to 10/11.
The chart below illustrates various reasons why the next pivot date could range from 10/05 to 10/11. I’m not sure if among those pivot dates, there exists the top or a top or nothing at all. I just feel that they’re very important information that I should let you aware. By the way, a reader asked why I should bother to analysis pivot date. Well, a pivot date is similar to a resistance, that it can be seen as a resistance in terms of time, so like a resistance, it might or might not work but never have I heard that anybody saying because resistance sometimes doesn’t work so it’s useless to analysis resistance, well, so does the pivot date or more precisely the time resistance analysis.
- Multiple Gann Day confluence on 10/05, 10/06, 10/10 and 10/11.
- Statistically, trend is more likely to change on day 6 and 11 of each month since 2000.
- The next 39 trading day (or 56 calendar day) cycle is due on 10/11.
- A = C in terms of trading days was due on 10/05.
- New Moon is on 10/07.
- Solar Term date is on 10/08.
- SPX hit all time high on 10/11/2007.
Besides all the reasons mentioned above, the last but not the least reason is that Non Farm Payroll is on 10/08. The chart below clearly shows the market is more likely to turn around Non Farm Payroll day especially if the day was a red day.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SEEMS 11%+ RISE GUARANTEED BEFORE YEAR END, I’M SKEPTICAL HOWEVER
See 10/01 Market Recap for details.
SEASONALITY: OCTOBER IS BULLISH
See 10/01 Market Recap for October Seasonality chart.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
|QQQQ||*LA||4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): NDX to SPX ratio too high.|
|EMERGING||UP||4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.|
|CANADA||UP||TOADV MA(10) too high and has negative divergence.|
|GDX||UP||4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.|
|FINANCIALS||UP||4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?|
|REITS||UP||4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging.|